As 2023 draws to a close, armed conflicts continue to rage in Gaza and Ukraine. Competition for strategic resources and cutting-edge technologies is reshaping geopolitics and global trade. Given the unprecedented interest rate hikes by central banks in the world’s major financial centres, households and businesses feel the effects of high borrowing costs and tight credit conditions.

Combine these developments with issues surrounding the ongoing campaigning for elections in Indonesia. The world’s third-largest democracy will hold simultaneous legislative and presidential polls on Valentine’s Day 2024. Indonesian voters are typically non-ideological, but they care about what candidates can offer to make their lives more bearable.

Indonesia’s political environment next year will be shaped by the integrity of the electoral process, the level of societal or political frictions, and the effects of potential global disruptions. The varied combinations of these three factors yield nine possible risk scenarios that could affect the country’s outlook in the foreseeable future.