Israel-Iran clash: Navigating the black swan of a regional war

On June 13, Israel launched an audacious offensive against Iran, codenamed "Am KeLavi," striking its military and nuclear core with unrelenting precision. 

The operation killed Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commander Hossein Salami and nuclear scientist Fereydoun Abbasi, targeting facilities like Natanz and Parchin while hitting Tehran’s residential areas, including Ali Shamkhani’s residence.

Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, vowed “severe punishment,” signaling retaliation via missiles, drones or proxies like Hezbollah. Iran's health ministry reported Monday at least 224 people killed and more than 1,200 wounded in Israeli attacks since June 13. 

This escalation builds on Israel’s campaign to cripple Iran’s air capabilities, from 2018 strikes on Iranian air defenses in Syria to October 2024 attacks on Iran’s air bases, which gutted its Soviet-era fleet.