KOMPAS.TV- Kita sering diajarkan bahwa bencana adalah peristiwa alam. Tetapi di Sumatera hari-hari ini, di tenda-tenda pengungsian yang basah oleh hujan dan dipenuhi suara anak-anak yang batuk sepanjang malam, kita belajar sesuatu yang lebih pahit: bencana tidak pernah netral. 

Bencana, agaknya, bukan apa, tapi juga siapa? Bencana alam di negeri ini, kerap disambut dengan ritual kata yang memenuhi headline di berbagai media nasional maupun lokal, bukan aksi. Ketika rumah hanyut, ibu dan anak terseret air deras, yang muncul segera bukan peta yang tepat untuk mengevakuasi, melainkan protokol evakuasi penuh jargon. Padahal statistik berbicara jelas, dan menyampaikan  kepada kita secara konstan betapa bencana selalu berkunjung tiap musim dan tiap tahun. Menurut data Badan Nasional Penanggulangan Bencana (BNPB), pada tahun 2023 tercatat 4.940 peristiwa bencana, didominasi oleh banjir, longsor dan cuaca ekstrem, dengan meninggalkan dampak 267 orang tewas dan menghilang, jutaan terdampak dan mengungsi. Demikian juga saat tahun 2024, data yang terkumpul hingga 1 September 2024 menunjukkan kurang lebih 1.200 kejadian bencana yang 98,9% didominasi oleh hidrometereologi; banjir, cuaca, longsor. Banjir paling sering terjadi dan seolah memberikan tanda yang gamblang bagi kita bahwa potensi musiman terus tinggi.

Hari ini, 50 tahun lalu, 10 Desember 1975, Lettu Luhut Pandjaitan memimpin Kompi Alpha Nanggala V melakukan operasi terjun tempur untuk merebut Kota Baucau. Di sampingnya, Mayor Theo Syafei, Kasi Operasi Grup 1 Kopassandha, duduk dengan rahang mengeras. Di dalam perut Hercules yang bising itu, tidak ada banyak percakapan. Mereka berdua, Mayor Theo dan Lettu Luhut, disatukan oleh satu tekad yang lebih keras dari baja pesawat yang membawa mereka: menutup kegagalan terjun tiga hari lalu di Dili dengan keberhasilan tuntas merebut Baucau. 

Bagi Mayor Theo, penerjunan ini bukan sekadar aksi fisik. Sebagai perwira penghubung antara Kopassandha dan Mabes ABRI, dialah yang memanggul beban perencanaan di atas kertas. Dia tahu betul analisis intelijen Mayor Jenderal L.B. Moerdani—Komandan Grup 1 Kopassandha yang pertama—yang telah memperingatkan bahwa “Timor bukan tanah kosong”. Namun, hari ini, kertas rencana itu harus diterjemahkan menjadi pendaratan nyata. 

On Dec. 4–5, I attended the Sydney Dialogue organized by the Australian Strategic Policy Institute to share Indonesia’s view on the risks of artificial intelligence. As leaders and experts gather for this meeting, the atmosphere feels very different from previous years because the time when we viewed AI simply as a tool for making work faster is over.

AI has become the center of a new world order, and we have entered what I call the AI Triad, which consists of the politicization, securitization and weaponization of technology.

These three concepts are driving a new cold war in the Indo-Pacific region. Politicization means AI is no longer just for efficiency, but is now a symbol of national pride, where a country’s AI program shows its power just like a flag does. This leads to securitization, where scientific research is seen as a national security issue, resulting in strict bans on sharing technology that look like the oil embargoes of the past. Finally, weaponization has moved from theory to reality, with autonomous drones and deepfake lies now being used to disrupt elections and destabilize countries.

However, this situation is made even more dangerous by three technical problems. The first is the attribution crisis, which means that in the digital world, we often cannot prove who attacked us, and without knowing who did it, we cannot stop them. The second is the alignment problem, which shows that AI systems built in Silicon Valley act differently from those built in Beijing because they have different values. The third problem is the quantum threat, where hackers steal encrypted data today hoping that powerful future computers will be able to unlock it (“Harvest Now, Decrypt Later”) making it impossible to keep secrets safe.

There is one thing the country does with remarkable consistency, without even trying: We keep failing the same disaster exam.

We have laws, national and local agencies, annual drills and handbooks thicker than Russian realism novels on managing disasters, yet the moment rivers overflow or the ground shifts, we are once again startled by chaotic coordination, sluggish aid and a government too distracted by bureaucratic semantics.

As of Thursday, the media reported that thousands of people across Sumatra have been affected: by displacement, power outages, stalled logistics. Meanwhile, public debate circles obsessively around whether the event qualifies as a “national disaster”, mistaking an administrative checkbox for the crisis itself.

We are a nation perfectly aware of our geological lottery yet perpetually unprepared for the ticket we hold. Disasters unfold like an annual ritual: the flood comes, homes are submerged, the news rolls, jacketed officials appear for photo ops, the cameras leave and so does political memory. The cycle is so entrenched that economists might envy its very predictability.

The world is reeling from the return of United States President Donald Trump’s “America First.” Analysts rush to label it chaos, an impulsive, predatory doctrine that shreds alliances, slaps arbitrary tariffs and plunges the globe into a dog-eat-dog anarchy. Allies tremble, adversaries recalibrate and everyone braces for a leader who seems to govern by instinct rather than strategy.

Keberadaan pengetahuan lokal maupun pengetahuan ilmiah seharusnya hadir berdampingan atau beriringan dalam menopang berbagai lini kehidupan manusia. Keduanya mempunyai ranah dan torehannya sendiri dalam “mewarnai” dan mengisi relung-relung perkembangan kehidupan saat ini. Baik pengetahuan lokal maupun pengetahuan ilmiah perlu dipahami sesuai dengan logika, nilai, praktik, dan konteks pengetahuan itu sendiri, bukan berdasarkan dari masing-masing sudut pandang maupun standar pengetahuan tersebut. Logika dan cara berpikir manusia dalam konteks ruang (lokasi fisik maupun kandungan yang melekat) dan waktu (kronologi peristiwa maupun kesinambungannya) menjadi bagian tak terpisahkan dalam mengelola kehidupan manusia sebagai makhluk yang dikaruniai akal dan budi.

President Prabowo Subianto , you hold the final pen that will inscribe this moral chapter. Heroism is the last moral throne, reserved only for those unsullied by the sins of humanity and corruption. If former president Soeharto indeed rendered service, let those services be recorded proportionally within the chapters of economic history.  

However, the national hero title belongs to the conscience of the people, those who uphold justice above all else. Do not allow a flawed judgement to spawn a paradox of values and ultimately shatter this nation’s commitment to justice.

Indonesia’s vision to become a contributor to global peace is gaining ground. President Prabowo Subianto ’s initiative to deploy 20,000 or more peacekeepers to conflict zones such as Gaza is a reaffirmation of Indonesia’s role on the world stage.

It is an ambitious and commendable move, yet one that must be balanced with an inclusive, data-driven domestic transformation, fully aligned with the spirit of UN Security Council Resolution 1325 on Women, Peace and Security (WPS), which marks its 25th anniversary this Oct. 31.

The WPS agenda signifies a fundamental paradigm shift in diplomacy, security and development. Historically, security has been defined through militaristic and state-centric approaches, often overlooking women’s unique experiences and contributions in times of conflict. 

Resolution 1325 and its subsequent resolutions (such as 1820, 1888, 1889, and beyond) recognize that armed conflict affects women and men differently, and that women’s meaningful participation in all stages of peace processes, from prevention and mediation to resolution and post-conflict recovery, is essential for achieving sustainable peace.

KETIKA para pemuda Indonesia mengikrarkan Sumpah Pemuda pada 28 Oktober 1928, mereka sesungguhnya sedang melahirkan suatu imajinasi politik baru, sebuah kesadaran kolektif untuk melampaui batas etnis, agama, dan daerah menuju cita-cita bersama bernama 'Indonesia'.

Ikrar itu bukan hanya peristiwa kultural, melainkan juga tindakan politik yang menandai lahirnya subjek baru dalam sejarah: orang muda yang menolak tunduk pada tatanan kolonial dan menuntut hak menentukan masa depannya sendiri. Hampir satu abad kemudian, semangat serupa bangkit kembali di berbagai belahan dunia dalam bentuk dan bahasa yang berbeda.

Sepanjang 2025, dunia menyaksikan gelombang gerakan pemuda yang merebak dari Nepal, Madagaskar, Maroko, Kenya, Peru, Timor Leste, hingga Indonesia. Meskipun berakar pada konteks nasional yang berbeda, semuanya menunjukkan pola serupa: generasi muda yang frustrasi terhadap ketimpangan ekonomi, kemerosotan demokrasi, serta maraknya korupsi dan patronase politik. Mereka menolak menjadi penonton di tengah oligarki global yang kian mengukuhkan diri, dan sebaliknya memanfaatkan ruang digital untuk mengorganisasi diri, memproduksi makna, dan menegosiasikan kembali makna keadilan.